Idalia and other hurricanes—are they being fueled by climate change?

Hurricane Idalia this week intensified from a powerful Category 1 storm to a severe Category 4, the second-highest rating for cyclones, in less than a day.

It eventually made landfall in the United States as a strong Category 3 storm — the minimum for a "major hurricane" — with winds whipping at about 193 kilometres per hour (120 miles per hour).


Experts are debating if Idalia is a foreshadowing of things to come as catastrophic weather occurrences are amplified by climate change, even though the Atlantic hurricane season has only just reached its peak months.


After weakening into a post-tropical cyclone, Idalia, the third hurricane and ninth named storm of the season, has subsequently drifted off into the North Atlantic Ocean.


It was 295 kilometres (185 miles) west of Bermuda, a British overseas territory, as of Friday morning, with maximum sustained winds of about 95 kilometres per hour (60 mph). Through Sunday, the island is predicted to get rainfall ranging from 75 to 125 mm (3 to 5 inches), with the possibility of flash floods.


However, Idalia's devastation in the southern US has caused experts to revise their predictions for the hurricane season in 2023.


It is now anticipated that the hurricane season, which they had thought would be quite moderate, will have more extreme storm activity.


In the early hours of Wednesday, Hurricane Idalia tore across the southern United States, unleashing ferocious gusts, copious rain, and extensive flooding in the states of Georgia and Florida. Even after it was reduced to a tropical storm, Charleston and other significant coastal cities in South and North Carolina were submerged.


The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) forecasted an Atlantic hurricane season that would be "near-normal" in May. However, NOAA revised their forecast in August, only a few weeks before Idalia developed, raising the season's expected storm total.


There will likely be 14 to 21 named storms in 2023, each with winds of at least 63 km/h (39 mph). According to the EPA, of those, six to eleven could develop into hurricanes, and two to five could develop into significant hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3 or above.


How has climate change affected the formation of strong storms as cleanup efforts continue in the areas devastated by Idalia? What can this possibly indicate moving forward? Let's look at it.

Why are scientists now anticipating a hurricane season with greater severity?

Scientists had previously anticipated a lull in hurricane predictions after seven years of record seasons.

El Nio, a climatic phenomenon that generally moderates the hurricane season in the southern US, arrived this year. El Nio, with its stronger westerly winds, can end up shearing off the tops of Atlantic storms before they fully organise into cyclones. Hurricanes need stable wind patterns to form.

However, this year has seen very warm water temperatures all throughout the world, with July breaking all previous records as the hottest month ever.

Surface water temperatures in some areas of Florida reached more than 38 degrees Celsius (101 degrees Fahrenheit), prompting some observers to equate the state's beaches to hot spas.

Because of these excessive temperatures, part of El Nio's moderating effects have been effectively cancelled out, prompting experts to reevaluate their predictions and issue a warning about a more catastrophic storm season.

What part does the changing climate play in hurricanes?

Scientists have yet to ascertain if climate change played a significant role in the severity or behaviour of Idalia because every storm is unique.

However, according to scientists, climate change has contributed to the conditions that have fueled hurricanes' increased wind and rainfall intensity. Politicians have also emphasised the relationship.

Joe Biden, the vice president of the United States, stated at a news conference earlier this week that "I don't think anybody can deny the impact of the climate crisis any more." Just take a look about you: unprecedented floods, more severe droughts, excessive temperatures, and large wildfires that have caused unprecedented destruction.

For instance, rising ocean surface temperatures can increase a hurricane's intensity and aid in producing greater winds.

According to NOAA scientists, hurricane wind speeds could rise by 10% if the earth heats by 2 degrees Celsius above its preindustrial normal.

Hurricanes may travel more slowly as a result of climate change, which allows storms to dump more water on the areas they pass through.

Because a warmer atmosphere holds onto moisture better, water accumulates in clouds until it finally breaks and dumps a significant amount of rain.

According to a 2022 study published in the journal Nature Communications, climate change boosted hourly rainfall rates by eight to eleven percent during the exceptionally active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

What difficulties do communities have after hurricanes?

Hurricanes like Idalia frequently leave behind significant damage, and cleanup and recovery activities can take weeks or even months to complete.

Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), stated during a news conference on Wednesday that Idalia made landfall with gusts of up to 193 km/h (120 mph) and up to 25.4 cm (10 inches) of rain. Numerous people were being rescued by emergency response teams after becoming stranded in their homes by flooding.

"Idalia is the strongest storm to hit this part of Florida — to make landfall in this part of Florida in over 100 years," claimed Criswell.

The storm may increase worries about whether insurance firms would start to view areas like Florida as too dangerous to justify providing their services. Insurance claims from storm-related damage are projected to top $10 billion.

Communities are striving to remove mud and debris and restore essential services like electrical power more urgently. In Florida, there are still more than 84,000 homes without electricity, according to the website PowerOutage.us.

However, certain areas of Florida that Idalia affected were still getting over the hurricanes from the year before. Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 storm that made landfall in Southwest Florida in September 2022 and left more than 150 people dead and $112 billion in damage, set a record for the state.

According to Florida's Fort Myers Mayor Kevin Anderson, "We're about 11 months out from Hurricane Ian." Additionally, there are still several blue tarps and active work sites.

He predicted that it would take five to ten years for recovery. It's a pretty drawn-out procedure, he declared.